The winter of 2004-2005 will feature the aspect
of el nino dictating the weather for much of
the continental USA. The el nino is warmer ocean
waters in the area off south america and it has a
flow that increases rainfall across the pacific and
then jet dives down and picks up energy and
swirls it thru the south and many times into
the northeast.
There are other factors besides this el nino
activity and it involves canadian fronts and
jet streams across the north.
I believe that this winter will feature weather
similiar but not exactly like the previous two
winters, in that this winter will be quieter when
it starts, but more active toward the middle and
colder and stormier toward the end.
There should be at least a few large snow events
for NYC and some may rival past blizzards
of the last 10 years.